A Rough Ride to the Future by James Lovelock

Author:James Lovelock [LOVELOCK, JAMES]
Language: eng
Format: epub, pdf
Tags: Science, Global Warming & Climate Change, General
ISBN: 9781468311600
Google: QWsjCQAAQBAJ
Publisher: The Overlook Press
Published: 2015-02-10T21:00:09+00:00

6

Can We Stop Climate Change?

Recently an interviewer told me, ‘Your book The Revenge of Gaia was the scariest book I have read.’ I was surprised; I had not meant to write a doom story, but intended a wake-up call, a warning that climate change was real and deadly and could be a threat to all humanity in only a few decades. I based my warning, as did many scientists, on the reports of the IPCC. The questioner then asked, ‘Was your book over-the-top, and have you changed your mind? Do you now think that we can relax and continue with business as usual?’

‘No, I do not,’ I replied. ‘I see the threat is just as real; all that has changed for me is that I have less confidence in the present model-based projections of the future climate. We are now less sure about when and how it will happen, but there is little doubt that there could be dire consequences for humanity’s current way of life if carbon dioxide and population continue to increase.’

What has changed my attitude since the end of the twentieth century is a loss of innocence. Twenty years ago I thought that we understood the disease of global warming, and I was confident that we could cure it. Now I see global warming as one consequence of the evolution of the Anthropocene – as inevitable as population growth, economic instability and the emergence of artefacts beyond our capacity to control or understand.

Our natural tendency to believe in anecdotal evidence and reject science makes it extraordinarily difficult for humans to make the right choice now about climate change. The cause of our frustration was brought home to me by the distinguished science writer Oliver Morton. In a discussion with him on geoengineering, I had raised the possibility that, growing tired of the slowness and confusion of global bodies like the United Nations, business organizations whose operations were hampered by climate change might decide to act unilaterally by themselves. For example, it might be possible to install on cargo ships travelling the world a simple wireless-controlled aerosol generator that could produce clouds on demand wherever the ships sailed. A consortium of businessmen could then turn these climate changers on or off at will. At first I thought this might be a better way of tackling climate change than waiting the endless years for the United Nations or groups of individual nations to reach a sensible conclusion. After all, the climate might have changed irreversibly while we waited, and I think we should certainly look on the more or less complete absence of reaction to the Kyoto agreement in this light. Oliver Morton brought me to my senses at a meeting of the Geological Society in 2011 with this thought: suppose that the unilateral climate changes succeeded in cooling the planet sufficiently to sustain business as usual, but like all therapies, it was not without side effects. There could be severe droughts in powerful nations such as India and

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